I see a lot of hand histories posted on poker forums sometimes where certain hands and ranges aren’t even considered. “There’s no way someone can have X or Y in this spot”, is what’s usually said in one form or another. That’s a HUGE HUGE mistake to get in the habit of thinking. Your goal in understanding the opponents you’re playing against, and their hand ranges is to be able to start weighting ranges in a way that makes sense, and accounts for the occasional “spaz” also, because they happen. Even tight and seeminlgy passive players “spaz” out. Take case in point this hand the other day. I played this while testing out DriveHUD – poker hud.
I had about 70 hands on my opponent at this point and they were running (26/2/32% AGG). So for full ring, this is someone who is playing too many hands, and playing them passively pre-flop AND post flop. It’s a small sample, but more or less the deviation is on such a polarized side of these ranges, it’s a pretty safe conclusion to reach.
Let’s take a look at the hand:
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD & Database
NL Holdem $1(BB)
Dealt to Hero A A
UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Calls $1 (Rem. Stack: 100.05), MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $4.5 (Rem. Stack: 128.85), BB Folds, MP Calls $4 (Rem. Stack: 96.05)
Flop ($11.0) 9 4 9
HERO Bets $5.5 (Rem. Stack: 123.35), MP Calls $5.5 (Rem. Stack: 90.55)
Turn ($22.0) 9 4 9 2
HERO Bets $11 (Rem. Stack: 112.35), MP Calls $11 (Rem. Stack: 79.55)
River ($44.0) 9 4 9 2 5
HERO Bets $25 (Rem. Stack: 87.35), MP Raises To $59.5 (Rem. Stack: 20.05), HERO Calls $34.5 (Rem. Stack: 52.85)
MP shows 7 7
HERO wins $160
By the time we get to the end of this hand, I’m thinking, “crap, they flopped a boat, quads, or turned a boat. There’s no way I’m good here.” So you have to look at the pot odds. I have to call $34.5 to win $128.5, there’s no way I can fold getting 3.7:1. I only have to be good 22% of the time here. So am I? There’s only a couple of second best hands they have to raise for value that they shouldn’t raise, like if they limp called KK-JJ and decided to raise or even TT for a call to be correct. So of course I call, and what do they show up with? Pocket 77’s. Was this a bluff or a value raise? Who the hell knows…. TY poker gods.
The moral of the story here of course is, don’t immediately see monsters under your bed. You have to consider their whole range, and while this is an extreme example, and a very easy call, it just illustrates that NIT’s and players like this will make bad plays. I still have no idea if this person thought they were bluffing or value raising. It just makes no sense at all.
Ace Poker Drills Poker Equity Calculator
Board: 9d 4d 9c 2d 5s
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
37.8049% 37.8049% 0% [ AsAh ]
62.1951% 62.1951% 0% [ ADTD(100), AD7D(100), AD5D(100), AD4D(100), AD3D(100), QQ-KK(100), KDQD(100), KDJD(100), KDTD(100), QDJD(100), QTs(100), JDTD(100), J9s(100), T9s(100), J9o(100), T9o(100), 99(100), 97s+(100), 98o(100), 87s(100), 8D6D(100), 76s(100), 7D5D(100), 6D5D(100), 44-55(100), 54o(100), 22(100),88(10),77(40) ]
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